Päevapoliitika

[futbolidipaul]

Hmm. Ma olen kuulnud ja lugenud, et nende droonide võimekus on kasvanud ehk nad suudavad ka MLRSe juba leida paremini ja vastulööke anda. Et nad on ka sõja käigus arenenud. Lahingkogemus on ikka lahingkogemus.

[Daz Booob]

Venelaste vastase liikumise tuvastamise kiirus on sõja algusega tõusnud ca 7 korda.

Suured, lollid, võimekad mürskude tootjad.

[JuriM]

Cool:

I served in the Army Intelligence Corps for 8 years, did two tours to Afghanistan, three times advisory attache for the diplomatic mission to Poroshenko's Government in Ukraine, spent cumulatively two years at Lask AB, and two consecutive stints serving on Scaparotti's SACEUR staff operations in Belgium before moving to the private sector to advise on weapons procurement and performance for the AFU. I am also married to a Ukrainian woman dataurl020667.gif

What you see is typical Nato public speech. At SACEUR they called it "UPOD". Under promise, over deliver. NATO is a political organization as much as it is military one and one of our playbooks was to always tell how poorly we would perform in a shooting war to try and convince the politicians in respective NATO nations to provide more money and funding.

Part of my job was to provide accurate assessments of Western military capability in contrast to Russia, mine specifically was on the tactical fires level. You are right in that we were all wrong in 2022.

All of us, collectively, were horrified at how poorly the Russians performed. Every bit of intelligence gathered on Russian doctrine, equipment performance, usage was just horribly miscalculated. We assumed that the Russian capability was about 3-3.5x what is was (we have a complex numerical system for calculating weapon platform effectiveness).

Without breaking any OPSEC and NDA's on how bad the Russian Army actually is, I can highlight to you a few broad points regarding the sheer level of incompetency that the Russian Armed Forces is in:

- Russian pilots calculate airtime on their frames differently to the west, whilst the hours remain high, the way their resource allocation and scheduling works means that pilots in the same squadron do not get a lot of air-time together. Which is why air support by Russia is very piecemeal and usually comes in pairs, they simply do not have the training intimacy to go beyond that.

-complete lack of aerial ELINT and AWACS support. Complete lack of network centric warfare. AFU were sharing radar tracking data to LASK and the boys at LASK were pointing out that Frogfoots were running tactical bombing missions without any AWACS support, C&C assets for hundreds of miles, if at all. Guidance and mission planning was all done beforehand. NATO stopped doing this in the mid 1980's. We were all incredibly confused by this - how can a modern airforce operate without real time operational command and control? Well, turns out the estimations of VKS assets was completely off, because the satelitte images of those planes on runways were just old cannibalized parts that weren't able to fly. As of 2024, Russia in total has less than 10 flyable frames that can do C&C/AWACS.

-The simple inability in 2022 (and still to this day) to handle 1970's 'Shoot and Scoot' Tactics employed with MLRS systems. This is all linked to the above; without eyes in the sky to pinpoint MLRS fires, it's very hard to launch counter batteries. This problem still exists today.

-Their air defense systems, on paper, are excellent. The problem is any singular weapons platform needs to be integrated with the broader doctrine of its utility. S300/400 is a strategic level asset that requires layered defenses against tactical level threats. On paper, Russia had this. S3/400's supported by Pantsir's, Tor's and Buk's. Then we started getting reports of jerry-rigged Mig29's with old variants of HARMS somehow taking out S-400 control stations. Why? Because the complete lack of co-ordination between the control stations and the tactical level assets. Complete misuse of very good weapons platforms due to obsolete doctrines and a terrible standard of training on the air defense crews.

-Tooth to tail ratio's are completely screwed. Russian BTG's operated with a 1:2.5 tooth to tail ratio which is absurd. NATO brigades operate on a 1:5 -> 1:9 tooth to tail ratio. This means that you sometimes have 10 soldiers responsible for somehow repairing and refuelling 20 armoured vehicles in a 24 hour period.

-Russian Army prior to 2022 had a very nice, on paper, strategic doctrine. Gerasimov was the theorist who came up with the doctrine and it is called the "Gerasimov Way of War" in Russian. Yet, when the war broke out, the Russians did not follow their own, documented, doctrines. BTG's were not co-ordinating with one another, nor were they reacting in real time to the battlefield around them. This is a result of a combination of lack of training, lack of material, lack of non coms and a lack of ability of the Chief of Staffs to actually implement the doctrines they wish to employ.

I could go on and on, but I get the feeling you're not going to listen and I'm also not going to risk going any deeper due to OPSEC.

Väike insight Venemaa armee võimekusest ja selle olematusest.

[Daz Booob]

Huvitav, kas Lauri Läänemetsa (ja sotside) arvates peaks Kostjalt võtma kaptenipaela? Koondisest välja jätma?

[JuriM]

Palju head infot.

[JuriM]

Ülimalt pikk lõim selgitamaks kuidas kogu see USA valitsuse protsess Ukraine abipakettidel on hetkel siiani toiminud ja mis käike on vaja läbi teha, selleks et mingeid otsuseid vastu võtta.

[Daz Booob]

THI on lihtlabane varas.

[JuriM]

https://www.delfi.ee/artikkel/120282805/intervjuu-toomas-hendrik-ilves-demokraatia-on-see-et-sul-on-voimalus-kusitleda-peaministrit-ka-siis-kui-sa-ise-oled-taielik-lollpea

pikk lugemine hommikuks, aga hea lugemine jälle.

[vendetta]

Täielikud kilplased...proportsionaalselt saab jälle kõige rohkem vastu perset inimene, kes tekitab väga vähe jäätmeid, sest ei osta mõttetut sitta kokku.
Minusugused kiviaja inimesed. Suvisel ajal mul sisuliselt jäätmeid ei tekigi peale õlle ja veepudelite mille rehvide vilinal taarapunkti viin. Mingi minimaalne kogus biojäädet tekib ka, aga see läheb peaaegu eranditult komposti.

[Maarek]

See uus jäätmeseadus saab olema mingi täisidiootsus ju? Tühjad prügiautod hakkavad hiigleringe tegema ja kõik saavad selle kütuse kinni maksta. Väga ökoloogiline tõesti. Nahui kaotada suured kogumiskonteinerid, kuhu eramaja omanikud said oma kuus purki ära tuua, mis kuu ajaga tekib? See jutt, et "saab mitme majapidamise peale võtta" on ka tore uhhuuteadus. Kuhu selle prügimaja ehitama peaks? Eramajade piirkondades pole tihti kõnniteede jaokski ruumi, vaid sõidutee lõppeb aiaga.

Et nagu mis selle asja point on kõigel?

Meil olid elurajoonis kogumiskonteinerid, üsna tihti oli ümbruskond mingit läbu täis, nüüd tehti maalused, et üldpilt ilusam oleks ja kuigi probleeme tühjendamiste sagedusega on olnud, siis asi enam-vähem juba funkab.
See kogumis-süsteem alles saadakse vaikselt toimima ja nüüd meie armas riik arvab, et peaks lammutama, wtf tõesti.

Mis krdi naabritega hajaasustuses elavad inimesed kokkuleppeid tegema hakkavad, 5 ruutkilomeetri raadiuses või

[Daz Booob]

Keegi naisterahvas KMist kusagil raadios esines ja väitis enesekindlalt, et jäätmekäitlusega saab kõik olema väga lihtne ja selge.

Kui keegi midagi sellist väidab, siis tekib teatav reservatsioon. Kui seda väidab ametnik, siis lisandub koefitsent. Kui seda väidab KMi ametnik, siis lisandub veel üks koefitsent.

Siis järgmisena sattusin ETVs nägema, kuidas mingi KMi meesterahvas sama rääkis - väga soravalt ja enesekindlalt manas sõnades pähe õpitud slaide. Ning siis kui küsiti miskit, mida slaididel polnud, siis käis lihtsalt, kiirelt ja selgelt slaidid peas läbi, sutsu kogeles ning väitis, et kõik saab olema väga selge ja lihtne.

Loodetavasti saab siis olema lihtne ja selge. Või siis klassikaline "lihtne ja selge", kus keerutatakse tolm üles, väidetakse naerusuil ja enesekindlalt, et keegi võis miskit siiski valesti mõista, seletada ja tegelikult on kõik ammu juba kirjas - ainult lugege. Ehk siis päeva lõpuks on kõik nii "lihtne ja selge", et pööbel väsib ja maksab. Ja see, kes julgeb märkida, küsida raha kasutamise tarbekuse osas, see on pahatahtlik loll.

[orbitaaljaam]

See uus jäätmeseadus saab olema mingi täisidiootsus ju? Tühjad prügiautod hakkavad hiigleringe tegema ja kõik saavad selle kütuse kinni maksta. Väga ökoloogiline tõesti. Nahui kaotada suured kogumiskonteinerid, kuhu eramaja omanikud said oma kuus purki ära tuua, mis kuu ajaga tekib? See jutt, et "saab mitme majapidamise peale võtta" on ka tore uhhuuteadus. Kuhu selle prügimaja ehitama peaks? Eramajade piirkondades pole tihti kõnniteede jaokski ruumi, vaid sõidutee lõppeb aiaga.

Et nagu mis selle asja point on kõigel?

[JuriM]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/03/27/poland-eurocorps-military-commander-investigation/6e3fe45a-ec5e-11ee-8f2c-380a821c02db_story.html

https://twitter.com/P_Fiala/status/1773407893678661891

https://www.politico.eu/newsletter/brussels-playbook/russias-operation-to-sway-eu-opinion/

Viimased päevad on päris huvitavad olnud.

[Daz Booob]

Sweet

[vtp]

Sest EP peab kuidagi oma optimistlikku majandusprognoosi toetama.